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IS OUR current energy system on the brink of collapse? Despite the billions of dollars invested in the industry, energy today is less affordable, less secure and less sustainable than ever.迷利倉 And the future does not look promising.World energy use is projected to increase by 56 per cent between 2010 and 2040. If we continue on our current trajectory, today's energy consumption will restrict tomorrow's economic growth.This challenge is particularly relevant in emerging economies. Asean's rapidly growing nations will contribute 5.5 per cent of global growth by 2014 but they'll require 7.5 per cent of the world's energy supplies to do it.The Asean-5 remains heavily weighted towards hydrocarbons with oil, natural gas and coal accounting for 97 per cent of primary energy use, with renewables (excluding traditional biomass) accounting for only 3 per cent of consumption.Primary energy demand is expected to increase by 83 per cent between 2011 and 2035, accounting for more than 10 per cent of global energy demand growth.So what needs to change? The Asean region faces a series of energy-related "choke points" on growth, including soaring energy demand, difficulties in supplying energy sustainably and a growing reliance on energy imports.A business-as-usual approach will trigger a potentially crippling trilemma: energy prices will continue to rise, energy security will diminish and carbon emissions will increase. As a consequence, growth will slow and businesses will suffer.Despite their diversity, some of Asean's top performers - such as Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand (the Asean-5) - struggle with common problems. These include a growing supply and demand imbalance, a lack of high-quality energy infrastructure and uncontrolled urbanisation. Asean countries have consistently put sustainability on the back burner at the expense of development and energy security - which, although common in developing countries, is storing up major issues for the future.If Asean is to carve out a sustainable future, it will need to radically transform its energy system. This will require a collaborative approach by governments, industry and consumers. Improving the energy system requires building support from all stakeholders in civil society, including the public at large.What are the critical applications that Asean nations can apply to the energy system to help alleviate performance choke points?Governments need to install a depoliticised energy policy mechanism to enable decision making that supports the long-term needs of energy development, similar to the role a federal bank plays in financi迷你倉l services.Without independent energy policy apparatus, Asean nations will struggle to make some of the tough decisions required and opportunities will be lost.Market distorting subsidies need to be removed, leaving in place benefits to those most in need through tax breaks and social security.With successful models witnessed elsewhere and a pressing need for removal, Asean must act smartly and soon to confirm the energy system does not continue its distorted development.And governments need to increase support for research and development to stimulate an adequate portfolio of low carbon alternative and unconventional technologies.The industry needs to take the lead on the deployment of smart data-led technology and infrastructure to support the efficient expansion of urban environments and the deployment of clean coal technologies.Coal use in Asean has grown significantly since 1990, and is expected to triple during 2011-2035, accounting for nearly 30 per cent of global growth.Efficiency improvements are among the most cost-effective and shortest lead time actions for reducing emissions from coal-fired power generation, but additional activities, such as the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and coal-to-liquids technology, also will promote the sustainable use of coal.The region needs a continental approach that will bind together supply and markets across national boundaries, as well as a cross-sector approach that will break down the traditional industry boundaries and create new opportunities and new energy players.While Asean is already working towards some of these initiatives, what is needed is a concerted effort to make them a reality.Realising the full potential of these initiatives requires further efforts to harmonise technical and regulatory standards, phasing out end-user price subsidies, ensuring third-party grid and pipeline access, and establishing a regional regulator.Finally, the development of an energy literate population will be crucial in facilitating consumer support for supply-side developments and encouraging behavioural changes on the demand side that will drive energy efficiency.The disparities in the macro-economic environment and level of energy system development across Asean mean each country will need to prioritise and apply these critical initiatives in different ways - but the end goals remains the same, to create an energy system that will deliver benefits to the region and the world economy for years to come.This will be the true test of the 21st century energy system.The writer is a senior managing director leading Accenture's global energy business自存倉
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